Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is an offshore-tolerated market facing a punishing tax step-up, and an operator should read it as accessible demand undercut by hardening economics. The Lotteries and Gaming Board licenses land-based lotteries, casinos and sportsbooks, but online betting sits in a grey zone with no dedicated online licence, so offshore sportsbooks operate freely. The strategic point is that Zimbabwe has real betting demand, but the 2026 tax increases and currency volatility erode the margins, so it is not yet a clean licensable market.

Online sits in a grey zone. The gaming board focuses on physical venues, and there is no dedicated online licence, so offshore sportsbooks serve Zimbabwean players without a specific local licence. A proposed rebrand of the regulator to a body with expanded enforcement powers has been floated. For an operator, that means the online market is tolerated rather than cleanly licensable, so an entry lacks the legal clarity of a regulated regime.

The 2026 tax step-up is punishing. A withholding tax on gross sports-betting winnings took effect in 2025, and from 2026 the operator gross-gaming-revenue tax is set to rise sharply, with the player-winnings tax also increasing, though final enactment should be confirmed. For an operator, that hardening tax materially erodes margins and changes player behaviour at the same time, so a Zimbabwe entry has to be modelled against the new, much heavier load rather than the historical one.

Currency volatility is a real settlement risk. Zimbabwe's currency instability is a genuine operational risk, complicating settlement and value, and mobile money is the dominant payment rail. For an operator, that means even setting aside the tax, the macroeconomic environment makes reliable operation and repatriation difficult, which compounds the grey-zone licensing and the rising taxes. The fundamentals are challenging.

What winning looks like. Winning in Zimbabwe, to the extent it is viable, looks like a mobile-money-native betting operation that can absorb the 2026 tax increases and manage currency risk, entered with clear eyes about the grey-zone licensing. The operators who do well price in the hardening economics and the macro instability rather than treating Zimbabwe as a clean, low-friction market.

The regional play. Zimbabwe sits in Southern Africa near South Africa and Zambia, and it suits operators building a regional footprint who can manage its tax and currency challenges. How Zimbabwe fits a regional sequence is part of the multi-market sequencing piece.

The biggest mistake. The biggest mistake is treating Zimbabwe as a clean licensable market when online sits in a grey zone and the 2026 tax step-up is punishing. The related mistake is underestimating the currency volatility. Enter only with a mobile-money-native model that can absorb the hardening taxes and manage the macro risk, or recognise that the economics may not work.