The market
Portugal combines a relatively open licensing model with detailed player-protection rules and a product-dependent tax. The market passed EUR 1bn in annual online GGR, reaching about EUR 1.07bn in 2024 on SRIJ data reported by trade titles, up sharply on 2023. Quarterly momentum continued into 2025, with Q1 2025 online GGR around EUR 287m and Q4 2025 IEJO tax collection of EUR 99.3m, up 11.3% year on year. As of Q4 2025 there were 18 entities holding 32 licences.
Online casino is the larger share of the market, at roughly 62% of games in one quarterly read, followed by sports betting. Live online casino is prohibited, which shapes the casino product. The player base is growing, with active betting accounts above 1.2 million reported.
The market is competitive but still expanding, and licensing remains genuinely open, unlike Spain or Italy.
Regulation and licensing
The SRIJ licenses private online operators under the RJO, Decree-Law 66/2015 as amended by Law 2/2020, with a separate licence required for each game type and a three-year renewable term. Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa holds the monopoly over state lotteries and mutual bets. Financial guarantees are substantial at EUR 500,000 per licence plus EUR 100,000 for the gambling tax, and the payment gateway and data storage must be physically located in Portugal.
The tax structure is the key modelling issue. Online casino games are taxed on GGR via the IEJO, starting at 15% and rising progressively above EUR 5m to a maximum 30%. Fixed-odds sports betting is taxed on turnover, not margin, starting at 8% and rising to 16% above EUR 30m in stakes. Turnover-based betting tax can produce very high effective rates on actual profit, especially in low-margin periods.
Marketing and player rules
Advertising is permitted for SRIJ-licensed operators under a strict framework with mandatory responsible-gambling messaging. A centralised self-exclusion portal with mandatory real-time checks takes effect from April 2026. Player winnings from licensed operators are exempt from personal income tax, which is a retention advantage. Unlicensed operation carries penalties up to five years imprisonment and fines up to EUR 1m or 10% of turnover. Affiliate exposure should be managed within the advertising framework.
What this means for your plan
I would look hard at Portugal for a casino-led product because licensing is open, the market is above EUR 1bn and still growing, and the casino tax tops out at 30% of GGR, which is workable. The catch is sports betting: an 8% to 16% turnover tax can wreck a low-margin book, so if you are betting-led, model the effective rate on your real margin before committing. Live casino being banned also limits the product. First move: split your model by vertical, because casino and betting have very different economics here.
Sources
- Lexology, Portugal online gambling market Q4 2025 analysis, checked 4 September 2026
- askcasino, Portugal iGaming market 2026 tax detail, checked 4 September 2026
- marvn, Portugal online gambling regulation overview 2026, checked 4 September 2026