The market
The Netherlands opened its licensed online market on 1 October 2021 under the Remote Gambling Act. Licensed online GGR reached about EUR 1.458bn in 2024 according to the Kansspelautoriteit, but the picture has since deteriorated for operators. The KSA Monitoringsrapportage voorjaar 2026, published April 2026, put channelisation at 53% by GGR for H2 2025 (corrected up from 49%), with 92% of players using only licensed operators. Licensed GGY was EUR 602m in July to December 2025, roughly EUR 100m per month, down about 18% year on year.
The gap between 92% of players staying licensed and only 53% of GGR being channelised is the story: the highest-spending players are the ones leaking to unlicensed sites, and the tax and limit changes are widening that gap. Several licensees have exited, including Tombola, LiveScore Bet and ScoriPro, and only 3 new online casinos went live in 2025.
The player base is digitally mature and concentrated among a smaller number of licensed brands than at launch. This is a consolidating market, not a growing one.
Regulation and licensing
The KSA licenses remote casino and betting under the Koa. The binding constraints now are fiscal and behavioural, not the licence itself. Gaming tax rose in two steps: from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025, then to 37.8% on 1 January 2026. Both the KSA and the Ministry of Justice advised against the increase, but the government pushed it through. Licensed operators have responded by lowering RTP to absorb the burden, which further weakens the licensed product against offshore.
Player protection is tightening in parallel, with deposit and play limits and affordability interventions rolled out through 2025 and the Cruks self-exclusion register mandatory for all licensees.
Marketing and player rules
Untargeted advertising has been banned since mid-2023, sponsorship of events is prohibited and the use of role models is heavily restricted. Bonuses are tightly limited, which removes a key acquisition lever. Cruks registration and checks are mandatory. Affiliate exposure is meaningful because the advertising ban limits what affiliates can lawfully do, so operators must supervise them closely.
What this means for your plan
I would wait. The Netherlands is a legal, well-run market, but the combination of 37.8% tax, RTP cuts, tight advertising and tightening limits has compressed margins to the point where smaller operators are leaving. If you already hold a Dutch licence, the play is retention and cost discipline, not growth spend. If you do not, I would hold until the next KSA monitoring report shows whether channelisation and licensed GGR have stabilised. The named event to watch is the spring 2027 monitoring data. First move: model your contribution per player at 37.8% before anything else.
Sources
- Kansspelautoriteit, Monitoringsrapportage voorjaar 2026, checked 4 September 2026
- Rijksoverheid / Ondernemersplein, kansspelbelasting increase 34.2% to 37.8%, checked 4 September 2026
- Casinonieuws.nl, kansspelbelasting 2026, checked 4 September 2026